A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
